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| (Rick Egan | The Salt Lake Tribune) |
BYU basketball's hopes at an at-large bid for the Big Dance were dashed because of losses to lower level opponents like Pacific, Portland and Pepperdine. However, the possibility of a No. 1 seed in the West Coast Conference tournament is still very real for the Cougars if the right things happen as the WCC wraps up regular season play.
Currently, the Cougars sit in third place in the conference standings behind Gonzaga in second, and St. Mary's in first. The Cougars have a conference record of 12-4 going into the last two games of the regular season and both St. Mary's and Gonzaga are 13-3 in conference play.
With those circumstances, let's take a look at the different scenarios that would affect the Cougars' seeding in the WCC tournament.
St. Mary's wins their last two regular season games and BYU beats Portland and Gonzaga
St. Mary's would win the regular season conference title and they would clinch the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament. St. Mary's last two regular season games consist of Santa Clara and San Francisco. BYU would win the tie breaker with Gonzaga and receive the No. 2 seed. The Cougars could face Portland, Pacific or Santa Clara in the quarterfinals.
St. Mary's wins their last two regular season games and BYU beats Portland but loses to Gonzaga
St. Mary's would take the No. 1 seed, Gonzaga would take the No. 2 seed and BYU would fall to the No. 3 seed. In this situation, BYU would most likely face San Francisco in the quarterfinals.
St. Mary's loses to either Santa Clara or San Francisco and BYU beats Portland and Gonzaga
St. Mary's, Gonzaga and BYU would all be tied atop the conference standings. The Cougars would take the No. 1 seed due to their better record against both the Gaels and the Zags. In this case, the Cougars could face San Diego, Loyola Marymount or Pacific in the conference tournament quarterfinals.
St. Mary's loses to either Santa Clara or San Francisco and BYU beats Portland but loses to Gonzaga
Gonzaga would take hold of the No. 1 seed surpassing St. Mary's for first place in the conference and they would win the regular season conference title. St. Mary's would be the No. 2 seed and BYU would be the No. 3 seed. As in the second situation above, the Cougars would likely face San Francisco in the conference tournament quarterfinals.
BYU loses to Portland
In any circumstance where BYU loses to Portland, they would essentially doom themselves to the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament. St. Mary's and Gonzaga could lose one of their two remaining conference games, but BYU would still receive the three seed. If St. Mary's and Gonzaga lost both of their two remaining games, BYU would then receive the No. 1 seed. However, that situation is highly unlikely.
However the tournament seeding shakes out, the Cougars will need to win the WCC tournament in order to get into the NCAA tournament. Most analysts are calling the West Coast Conference a one bid league. ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest
bracketology has both St. Mary's and Gonzaga in the tournament with St. Mary's as an 11 seed and Gonzaga as part of the Last Four In. If the Cougars beat the Zags, Gonzaga's at-large hopes could quickly disappear.
